The 2026 El Niño has already surpassed previous records in the observational record, with scientists monitoring the potential for major changes to rainfall, temperature and extreme-weather patterns around the world. A powerful El Niño developing across the tropical Pacific has reached record levels before its expected peak later this year, prompting renewed warnings from meteorological authorities about its potential influence on weather patterns around the world.
The UK Met Office said on September 22 that the developing event had exceeded previous records, with sea-surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific reaching levels not previously observed during an El Niño event.
The agency had already warned in August that the 2026 event was shaping up to be an exceptionally strong El Niño, with forecasts indicating that it could become the largest in living memory.
Scientists are now watching closely as the phenomenon continues to develop towards its expected peak later in 2026.
Pacific Ocean reaches exceptional temperatures
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon in which sea-surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific become significantly warmer than normal.
The warming changes atmospheric circulation and can influence rainfall, temperature and storm patterns thousands of kilometres away from the Pacific.
The latest observations show just how rapidly the 2026 event has intensified.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported in September that the Niño 3.4 index had risen from an average anomaly of +1.5°C between May and July to +2.0°C in July. Weekly measurements later climbed to approximately +2.2°C to +2.6°C above average between late July and mid-August.
The heat beneath the ocean surface is also unusually high, with some areas recording subsurface temperatures more than 8°C above average during July and early August, according to the WMO.
The Met Office subsequently confirmed that the event had moved beyond previous observational records.
Why scientists are concerned
The significance of El Niño is not limited to the temperature of the Pacific Ocean.
The phenomenon can alter atmospheric circulation across large parts of the planet, increasing the likelihood of unusual rainfall, drought, heat and storms in different regions.
However, the strength of El Niño alone does not determine exactly what will happen in any particular country.
The WMO stresses that regional impacts depend on the time of year and interactions with other climate patterns, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic oceans.
That means scientists can identify increased risks without predicting identical weather conditions everywhere.
More extreme weather risks
The WMO says a very strong El Niño can significantly alter global rainfall and temperature patterns and increase risks associated with flooding, drought and extreme heat.
For the September-November 2026 period, WMO forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas, alongside rainfall patterns associated with a strong El Niño response.
The organisation also expects a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole to develop, while tropical Atlantic waters are forecast to remain warmer than normal. These additional climate factors can strengthen, weaken or modify the typical effects of El Niño in different parts of the world.
What could happen in Europe?
The UK is among the regions being closely monitored because strong El Niño events can influence atmospheric circulation over Europe.
The Met Office has warned of a greater risk of wetter and stormier conditions in parts of north-western Europe during autumn and early winter.
Professor Adam Scaife, the Met Office’s head of long-range prediction, has described the developing event as unprecedented in the agency’s experience and said its influence could be felt well beyond the Pacific.
At the same time, scientists caution against assuming that every historical El Niño produces exactly the same outcome.
The relationship between El Niño and European winter weather is complex, and individual seasons can vary substantially.
Africa also faces potential impacts
El Niño can have important consequences for Africa, particularly through changes in rainfall patterns.
The WMO has identified increased risks of drought and other weather disruptions in parts of the tropics and southern Africa during strong El Niño events.
For countries whose economies depend heavily on agriculture and rainfall, changes in seasonal precipitation can have consequences for food production, water availability and livelihoods.
The precise effects, however, will depend on regional climate conditions and other atmospheric and oceanic influences.
This is particularly important for African countries because a global El Niño forecast should not automatically be interpreted as a specific prediction for every country.
National meteorological agencies and regional climate centres provide more geographically relevant forecasts.
El Niño is expected to continue into 2027
The current event is not expected to disappear immediately.
The WMO estimates an exceptionally high likelihood, close to 100%, that El Niño will persist through February 2027. It expects the phenomenon to strengthen further before reaching a peak towards the end of 2026.
That makes the coming months particularly important for governments, businesses, farmers and communities that are vulnerable to weather disruptions.
The WMO has said national meteorological and hydrological services are increasing preparedness and early-warning efforts in response to the exceptional event.
Scientists are still studying the full implications
Although the record-breaking measurements are significant, scientists remain cautious about linking the magnitude of El Niño directly to the severity of every weather event occurring around the world.
A stronger El Niño does not automatically mean every region will experience proportionally stronger impacts.
Other climate drivers can modify its effects, while local geography and seasonal conditions also play major roles.
Scientists will therefore continue monitoring ocean temperatures, atmospheric conditions and regional weather patterns as the event approaches its expected peak.
What it means for the world
The 2026 El Niño is already notable because of the exceptional warmth recorded across the tropical Pacific.
The Met Office now describes it as the strongest event in the observational record, while the WMO expects it to intensify further and continue into early 2027.
For the global community, the immediate issue is not simply how hot the Pacific Ocean becomes, but how that extraordinary ocean heat reshapes weather patterns elsewhere.
The coming months will provide a clearer picture of whether the exceptional strength of this El Niño translates into equally exceptional impacts across different regions.
For now, meteorological agencies are urging governments and climate-sensitive sectors to use seasonal forecasts and early-warning information to prepare for the increased risks of floods, drought, extreme heat and other weather disruptions.
